Civility, Principles, Decorum, Deficit, Debt & Other GOP Hits, Fake It ’till You Make It, God Bless the USA Bible, Project 2025, State of the Union Rebuttal, The Facts, Please, Trump ’25-Make America Corrupt, Trump Absurdities, Unintended Consequences, VOTER APATHY 2024, Voter Motivations, Voters: DUI or Asleep??
In a recent NBC Poll, only 64% of voters said they were “very interested” in the 2024 Presidential election. This is considerably lower on an historical basis and is generally viewed as an indicator of voter turnout.
In that same poll, Biden had closed the gap to just 2% behind Trump with a 3.1% margin of error, meaning statistically, Biden would potentially be able to win by 1% or lose by 5%. When the third party candidates enter the fray, Biden actually wins by 2% but the margin of error is the same, meaning the potential results of the election would be similar, except it would be Trump with the potential for a win of 1% or a loss of 5%.
In either scenario, there is a swath of nearly a quarter of the voting population (22%) that fall in the “unknown” abyss known colloquially as the independents. And since low voter turnout generally benefits Republicans, and the independents usually break slightly right of center, a frightening political landscape emerges, specifically as described in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025.
If the recent primary in the swing state of PA is any indicator, voter turnout was below 26%, and in the Presidential bellwether swing county of Northampton, that poor percentage was mirrored: albeit, 0.25% lower with a larger number of independent voters compared to the State’s average… in fact, an additional 5% higher.
In Northampton County, during the 2024 Presidential Primary, 1,004,713 votes were cast for Biden out of 3,895,223 registered Democrats or just shy of 26%; however, more remarkably was the fact that Dean Phillips who had dropped out months before managed to garner 6.83%!
For Trump, the news appears more bleak. Out of the 3,499, 524 registered Republicans, slightly more than 27% of them voted for Trump (949,373) while Nikki Haley, who also had dropped out almost 2 months beforehand got 16.12% of the vote.
In a closed primary such as Pennsylvania’s archaic system, only registered Democrats can vote for a Democrat and only registered Republicans can vote for a Republican. Independents have no ability to be heard. More importantly, the introduction of a third party candidate such as the spoiler known as Robert Kennedy cannot be assessed for what effect, if any, his name on the ballot as an independent might have on the outcome. He certainly will not WIN the election, He knows it as does everyone else. Some believe he will pull votes from Trump, others believe he will pull votes from Biden. In an election when the winner will likely be determined by a razor thin plurality with many people voting their ticket but skipping the presidential race out of frustration, and a large swath of independents that typically break slightly in favor of the GOP, ANY drawing off of votes could be the death knell that sways the election. That swath of independents (15.21% Statewide in PA and just shy of 20% in Northampton County) have yet to be heard. And it is THEIR vote that will determine the fate of this country. I just hope they remember the old biblical quote, You reap what you sow… or the more modern colloquialism, “You get what you deserve!”